The Japan Economic Research Center released on the 10th the economic growth forecast of 15 countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region as of 2035. Forecasts show that China’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) may surpass the United States in 2028. Due to the different speed of economic recovery from the epidemic, the US-China reversal that was originally predicted to occur after 2036 at the earliest may be greatly advanced.
According to a report by Japan Economic News on December 11, the center calculated the economic scale based on two scenarios of the epidemic. One is the “standard scenario” where the epidemic will end in the next 4 to 5 years, and the other is the “serious scenario” that is 4 to 5 years later than the “standard scenario”. Last year’s research showed that China’s economy would still lag behind the United States by 2035. However, this year’s research shows that the US-China GDP reversal under the standard scenario will be as early as 2029, and under severe scenarios it will even be further advanced to 2028.
As reported, the main reason is that the epidemic has further widened the gap in employment and scientific research funding between the United States and China. The epidemic is still raging in developed economies, including the United States and Europe, and the economies of these regions will shrink in 2020. On the other hand, China has taken the lead in quelling the epidemic due to thorough prevention measures. In terms of economic growth rate, China will also achieve positive growth.
